Hillary Clinton’s Campaign for the nomination is going exceedingly well. She is referred two by almost every one as the front runner, She is back on top in the found raising category, and she is getting important endorsements from local party officials left and right. The web and liberal political enthusiasts on the other hand are in a bit of a different mindset backing both Obama, Edwards and of course Kucinich (who’s supporters are a little on the crazy side but very nice).
This split is perfectly understandable. Clinton embodies what the democratic establishment values most: She’s a Clinton, which means she has name recognition something they love. She’s a women, making here a “progressive” choice. She does well enough among black voters with whom her husband was immensely popular. She’s a Senator with a strong on giving bush more power record, meaning she’s not soft on terrorism. Clinton has it all in there eyes.
The Netroots on the other hand represents a group that was never happy with Bill Clinton’s term in office. More over, they are a livid at the lack of spine that the Democratic majority in Congress has shown in congress on key issues; particularly the war in Iraq, and fiscal policy. The rightly recognize that the path the majority has taken has jeopardized the new, and hard won majority. The net roots is also driven more to support outsiders, hence their choices in the democratic primary. This outsider attitude can also be seen in the Netroots of the Republican Party which has raised $5 million (USD) for Ron Paul.
When the election comes around the question will be will the Netroots be able to beat out the establishment? My answer here is no. While Clinton will face a large challenge she is the only candidate in the top three who is embraced fully by the Democratic establishment, while both Obama and Edwards split the Netroots. The Netroots did show its muscle last election, but it was most effective in promoting a-typical democrats against corrupt republicans, and less effective at forcing its candidates through against more moderate conservatives, and in conservative strong holds, so staunch right-wing neo-fascists lost in Pennsylvania, but Darcy Burner lost to Dave Riechart in Washington. The Netroots won’t be able to significantly affect the primaries, especially when they are split.
While Clinton doesn’t energize the faithful yet, she is able to significantly reach out to Middle America. While that reaching out to this group shouldn’t be a candidates main qualification, its understandable that the democratic establishment post-Bill Clinton craves that demographic.
Unfortunately Clinton’s campaign has shown an almost distain for the Netroots even while embracing their tactics and occasionally their rhetoric. I think this means that instead of adopting a ticket which is balanced (Clinton for the establishment, Obama or Edwards for the Netroots) Clinton will pull a Gore, and grab another boring establishment VP, such as Joe Biden, or Bill Richardson.
Unfortunately that thinking is so first decade. It’s still a valid strategy, but if things continue it won’t move the democrats very far past 2008. The sad fact is that the lack of social investment in the US has led to dedevelopment. This makes progressive values and programs more then right, it makes them necessary. More and more Americans are less well off. Bill Clinton’s post-Regan appeal as a conservative Democrat, isn’t as large as it once was. Soccer Mom’s aren’t just worried about education any more, health care, the environment, and roads, are becoming national issues. I don’t know if you realize this but when roads become a national election issue, you’re like on par with Bolivia.
Progressive values will become key for national leadership. Unfortunately if the bulk of the Democratic Party doesn’t change its tone, it risks becoming irrelevant. Or worse yet, it won’t become irrelevant and politics will continue to be more about pulling the wool over people eyes, and making ourselves outraged about ads in the NY Times. We really are at a cross roads, and what the Clinton Campaign chooses to do ultimately will determine whether American recovers, or whether our educated youth begin to leave.
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